Affordable Housing: promises, problems, and the cost of the mirage

By Kwasi Fraser, former Town of Purcellville Mayor

Here we go again. The politicians are at it once more, spinning dreams of housing affordability while conveniently ignoring the true costs of their promises. No mention of paying people more to keep pace with housing prices. No acknowledgment of the economic strain these plans will place on the very communities they’re meant to help. Instead, we’re treated to a tired narrative: pack people in tighter, subsidize the cost with taxpayers’ dollars, and voila! Affordable housing Nirvana.

Take the Town of Purcellville, for example. For years, affordable housing has been a hot topic, but the proponents of increased housing density and subsidization have yet to answer basic questions. And until they do, the people of this town should be wary of the promises being made. Let’s start with these five glaring holes in their narrative:

1. What is the current inventory of affordable housing in Purcellville, and how much more is truly needed?  Given the Virginia estimate of 3.6 million housing units with a demand for 4.1 million, assuming we can reasonably apply the proportional need in housing units across communities in Virginia that will result in a 13.88% increase in housing units.  For Purcellville, with an estimated 3,000 homes, this translates to a need for 417 new homes. Assuming each new home brings three additional cars, this could add approximately 1,250 cars to our roads.

Before we start upending neighborhoods and accommodating a potential influx of 1,250 cars on our roads, we need an honest and data-driven assessment of the actual demand. Are we addressing a critical need for housing that aligns with the proportional estimate, or are we creating a solution in search of a problem?

2. What is the target cost of this proposed “affordable housing”? Lofty terms like “affordable” mean little without a number attached. Are we talking about homes priced at $200,000? $400,000? Words are cheap, but homes aren’t.

3. How many homes will be needed to meet this so-called affordable housing demand? What does success look like, and how will we know when we’ve achieved it? Or is this just an endless cycle of densification until the town loses its character and charm?

4. What is the financial impact of this model on Purcellville’s budget? The numbers don’t lie: for every $1 collected in residential property taxes, according to the FY25 Budget, Purcellville spends $3.3 on services. How much deeper will the deficit grow, and who will foot the bill?

5. What about traffic and infrastructure? Every new home brings two or three more cars onto our roads. What’s the plan for the increased congestion, the wear and tear on roads, and the already strained transportation infrastructure? Or do we simply hope for the best?

6. How does this plan entice critical service workers to live here? Will police officers, teachers, and nurses living within 30 miles of their workplaces give up their tranquil homes to cram into higher-density housing simply to shave a few minutes off their commute?

7. What happens to property values? How will your affordability scheme impact the family that just bought their $600,000 home, investing their savings in the dream of Purcellville?

These are not rhetorical questions. They are fundamental issues that deserve concrete answers before a single dollar of taxpayer money is spent or a single zoning ordinance is changed. Absent those answers, this isn’t a plan—it’s a pipedream.

And here’s the rub: we live in an era of powerful tools like artificial intelligence and digital twin technology. These can model the financial, environmental, and social impacts of any proposal with remarkable precision. Yet, instead of bringing data and transparency into the conversation, we’re handed vague promises and political platitudes.

Let’s pause the rhetoric and demand the facts. Show us the models. Prove the need. Lay bare the costs—financial, logistical, and social. Affordable housing shouldn’t be a slogan; it should be a carefully considered, data-driven strategy that uplifts the community without undermining its future.

Until then, Purcellville risks becoming a cautionary tale: a small town sold on big promises, only to awaken to the nightmare of broken budgets, overwhelmed infrastructure, and diminished quality of life. Let’s not let that happen here.